The Wall Street Journal headline on Wednesday announcing a framework agreement outlining the terms for normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia didn't live long.
It took just an hour for the White House to deny that any breakthrough had been made, and for the respected newspaper to change its headline. But what happened during that hour shows why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu so desperately longs to seal the deal with Riyadh.
Just minutes after Israeli news websites reported the story, the shekel strengthened against the dollar and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange was on the rise. News panels on television began discussing whether the agreement would lead to the formation of a unity government. The nation's political conversation changed in an instant.
This went on for an hour until the White House's denial. The shekel lost value again, and the evening news shows began focusing instead on a different aspect of the report – that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman expressed doubts about reaching an agreement with Israel at this time.
Nevertheless, the temporary excitement provided a glimpse of what the future may look like if and when an agreement between Israel and the Saudis becomes a reality.
The road ahead is long. According to the Wall Street Journal, the time frame for reaching an agreement is about a year. American sources say that no official documents have been prepared yet and that the talks are focused on clarifying the acceptable outline for the agreement.
The Saudis have set an unprecedented level of demands from the United States, including a mutual defense pact, a supply of American weapons that no Middle Eastern country except Israel has, and U.S. support for a civilian nuclear program. These conditions would require a two-thirds majority in the U.S. Senate, which is far from guaranteed as Republicans are in no hurry to give President Biden a massive political achievement ahead of the 2024 elections and Democrats are consistently hostile toward the Saudis.
Biden is certainly motivated by the prospect of stabilizing the global energy market during an election year. Netanyahu, on the other hand, hopes the agreement will consolidate his government and weaken the protests against it. Yet there is still a significant gap to bridge between the U.S. and Israel on aspects of the agreement that pertain to the Palestinians and which concessions Israel would be willing to make toward them.
Senior Israeli officials have been saying for months that such concessions will be minimal, such as a promise to avoid officially annexing the West Bank and a series of economic gestures Netanyahu's far-right coalition can agree on.
In an interview with Bloomberg earlier this week, Netanyahu dismissed the notion that the Palestinian issue would significantly hinder Israel’s efforts to normalize ties with the Saudis. “It’s sort of a checkbox,” Netanyahu told Bloomberg. “You have to check it to say you’re doing it. Is that what’s being said in corridors? Is that what’s being said in discreet negotiations? The answer is a lot less than you think.”
On Wednesday, Israel's Foreign Minister Eli Cohen published an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal in which he proposed that the United States should establish a defense alliance with the Saudis, similar to the one it has with South Korea. The word "Palestinians" was not mentioned once.
The U.S. tells a completely different story. According to the administration, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wishes to sign an agreement with Israel not only as the ruler of Saudi Arabia but as the leader of the entire Sunni world.
However, an agreement that Palestinians, Jordan, Algeria, and possibly other Arab countries would criticize, would not serve his purposes. According to the Americans, another challenge for bin Salman is that Iran might claim that the Saudis have "sold out" the Palestinians.
From the administration's perspective, the Saudis need Israel to make significant concessions benefitting the Palestinians in order to strengthen their international position. Recently, the Saudis and the Palestinian Authority have talked about the matter.
It is too early to say whether Washington or Jerusalem's interpretation of the situation is correct. Regardless, another element must be considered: U.S. public opinion, especially among Democrats.
Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Salman are hated by Biden's "base." Any agreement strengthening them will likely be criticized harshly by the progressive wing of the Democratic party. Two influential Democratic senators told Haaretz on Wednesday that an agreement that ignores the Palestinians will struggle to pass in the Senate.
This political reality is clear to the Biden administration. However, it is almost completely unknown to Netanyahu's ministers, who are not familiar with America's political landscape, don't meet with senior administration officials, and treat American Jews with contempt.
If eventually U.S.-Saudi talks progress, Netanyahu will have to decide how he deals with this difficulty, which may undermine his coalition.